REPEATING THE 1962 HIMALAYAN BLUNDER IN
2013
Part 11
Dr. Ishanand Vempeny
The Concepts of Credible Deterrence and
MAD
Once a Holy Man
(Sadhu) was approached by his villagers, requesting him to stop a cobra biting
them. The cobra lived in the hole of a big, old, banyan tree under and around
which the villagers used to move. One evening, this Sadhu confronted the cobra
and ordered him not to bite anybody in the village on pain of his powerful curse.
This poisonous reptile meekly submitted to the Sadhu’s command. After a week
the Holy Man came to the banyan tree. He saw the cobra bleeding, wounded all
over by stones thrown by the villagers. Raising its head with much pain and
agony the cobra said to the Sadhu: “Maharaj, I obeyed your command. Look at my
body. If I had not crept into this hole of the banyan tree I would have been
dead already”. The Sadhu granted a new lease of life to the cobra and said: “My
order was only not to bite and kill the people. I did not tell you not to warn
the villagers by hissing and spreading your hood menacingly. Hereafter do so
and no one will harm you.”
This parable
illustrates well the meaning of credible deterrence. By spreading its hood
threateningly and hissing loudly the cobra could live safely. India, quite
rightly agreed to abstain from the first use of nuclear weapons. But the Indian
nuclear arsenals and warheads should be kept ready in the Indian
Ocean undetected by hostile powers. We need nuclear submarines
with nuclear warheads. With such a credible nuclear deterrent, Pakistan with
its congenital hatred for India, and China with all its super power ambitions;
will know that any nuclear misadventure on India would be ‘MAD’ ie. Mutually
Assured Destruction, as was the case between America
and Russia
during the cold war. The recent successful launching of Agni-5 missile (April
2012) might make the Dragon think twice before repeating the 1962 adventure of
stabbing the back of a friendly neighbour.
Here another point
has to be made. It is part of the question of soft power. The Editor of TOI
wrote in his editorial: “Shoring up our Look East policy is a good place to
begin. There are several South-East and East Asian nations ranging from Vietnam
to Japan that are concerned about China’s territorial ambitions. Partnering
with these countries and forming a contact group will help New Delhi obtain
fresh insights and inputs on managing its own relations with Beijing. In the
same vein, India must seriously consider joining forums and groups such as the
US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asean-led Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership. This will provide it with different options to deal with
China” (TOI, “Chinese Checkers”, April 25, 2013, p.10).
Awake Oh Defense Minister,
Awake
Recently Shivaji Sondhi, Jacqueline Deal and Stephen
Rosen, three experts published three serial articles in the Indian Express (Ahmedabad) on September
13, 14 and 15 (2012) on the vulnerability of India in relation to China. The
facts brought forward by these experts can be enlightening to your ministry, if
you are open. In the first part of the series of articles they describe with
facts and figures the vulnerability of India vis-à-vis China. In the second
article they bring forward some positive factors that favour India vis-à-vis
China and in the third article they show how can India respond to China’s
might. After substantiating with facts the authors’ picture a few future
scenarios. We shall cite just one:
“In
considering these potential slippage points, we ask the reader to imagine an
environment in which China
has unquestioned military dominance over India and a major voice in the
international system, especially in economic and financial matters. In other
words, to imagine a future in which Chinese power looks like the power the US commands
today.
“With
that in mind, consider, for one, developments inside Tibet,
perhaps following the death of the Dalai Lama, which could lead to decisive
Chinese pressure for India
to shut down all Tibetan political activity in India
and to force the Tibetan government-in-exile into further exile outside India. Tibetan
refugees in India would be
asked to take Indian citizenship or to leave India,
bringing to an end a morally admirable policy that India has stubbornly clung to for
over 50 years.
“Second, as in 1962, China might also use unrest in
Tibet as a pretext to seek a new border settlement on Chinese terms. This time,
China might end up
controlling Tawang, which Chinese officials currently refer to as part of ‘South Tibet’ (along with the rest of Arunachal Pradesh).
Unlike the 1962 war, a future military clash may not be restricted to land
warfare at the border – instead, we may see a more dispersed set of strikes
with precision weapons that disable Indian capabilities in one fell swoop as
well as cyber attacks. China would also be likely to bring to bear financial
pressure, using economic warfare levers acquired through high levels of
investment and trade” (Indian Express, “The
Northern Neighbour” by Shivaji Sondhi, Jacqueline Deal and Stephen Rosen,
September 13, 2012, p.11).
The
Krishnamenonized Defense Ministry may not take seriously such negative things
about our “Friendly neighbour China”. The recent intrusions into the Indian Territory
by themselves are not capable of awakening the sleeping defense ministry.
Unlike Krishnamenon if the Defense Minister and the bureaucrats in the ministry
discuss the situation with the defense experts including the heads of the three
wings of the Indian Armed Forces, some sensible solutions may come up.
Shame on the
DRDO, Shame
It is
internationally known that India is the
largest purchaser of weapons in the whole world. What are the gentleman and
ladies of DRDO doing about this shameful reality? How many years ago the order
was given to build indigenously a model for Light Fighter Aircraft? After
decades a semblance of an aircraft with foreign engines was experimented recently
in Bangalore. Is it a credit to you? There were orders years ago for building
with foreign collaboration in India, submarines, aircraft carriers, etc. Where
are they? Where is the Russian made aircraft carrier supposed to be delivered
to India more than a decade back? During the 1962 Chinese attack when the
promised Russian MIGs were not reaching India, Raja Gopalachari asked the PM
whether Russian MIGs were carried to India by bullock-carts. What about the
Indian made Arjuna Tanks? Are you designing some decent guns instead of the
scam-filled Bofors? The Indian soldiers are complaining that they do not have
decent rifles. Have you thought about it? After the Pearl Harbour attack do you
know within one year how many ships and submarines were made by the American
people guided by American DRDO-like institutions? During the incessant attack
on London by Germany, how many German bombers were shot down, how many British
plains were destroyed and how much time it took to substitute them with their
improved versions?
Hard Power
and Soft Power
If we
are weak in ‘hard power’ we should at least be strong in ‘soft power’. China
has problems with practically all her neighbours including Japan, Vietnam and
the Philippines. The Americans and the Australians are eager to build up a
strong alliance with India’s cooperation. The Krishnamenonized Defense Ministry
may prefer to bow before the Chinese rather than joining hands with these
South-East Asian powers. Remember in 1962 when the much hated and maligned
Americans and the British came forward to India’s defense, the Chinese,
anticipating serious trouble withdrew its armies. Among our neighbouring
countries is there anyone whom we can call “All-weather Friend”?
An
effective defense system needs vision enhanced by the wisdom of experts. It
needs patriotism and a sense of urgency. Many of the Chinese and our weapon-systems
are just the improved versions of the Russian system. Is it strategically right
to depend so much on the Russians? Besides much of the military corruption is
in the purchase of weapons. When will India have the three wings of the
military capable of standing on its feet and face the enemies? Will the DRDO
shake of its drowsiness and get up with courage and patriotism? Let us hope and
pray that the three wings of Indian Armed Forces may stand on their feet in the
near future with ‘hard-power’ and ‘soft-power’. Please, please, save our Mother
Land from the ignominy of 1962.
For Contacts: ishanandsj@jesuits.net
